Likely due to the ramping of college football and the NFL, average daily volume (ADV) on prediction markets surged last month, hitting a record in dollar terms.
In a new report to clients, Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon says daily turnover on yes/no exchanges surged 55% in October to an all-time high of $4.13 billion as open interest rose 45% month-over-month to $3.27 billion, also a record. Much of that growth was concentrated at the top with the largest prediction market continuing to assert itself, but there were signs of vibrancy last month among other operators, including Polymarket US and Rothera.
“Polymarket had $655M ADV (+50% m/m; +395% y/y) as its ADV mkt share was 17% of the platforms that we track (flat m/m),” observes Fannon. “Other platforms that we track had $309M ADV (+56% m/m; +710% y/y), with mkt share flat m/m at ~7%. Rothera, which launched in June, had $49M in total ADV (+55% m/m), representing 1.2% of industry ADV (vs 1.5% in September).”
Rothera, one of the fastest-growing all-or-nothing exchanges, is a joint venture between Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) and Susquehanna International Group.
Sports Event Contracts Continue to Loom Large
Not surprisingly, sports derivatives continue to be the engine powering prediction market growth and that’s especially true at a time when the calendar has turned favorable for prediction market and sportsbook operators.
With assists from the acceleration of the college football and the NFL seasons and the start of the 2026-27 NBA campaign, sports ADV was up 55% month-over-month in October, according to Fannon. However, the analyst points out that sports event contracts’ market share of 78% was flat compared with September.
Fannon also highlighted an interesting though not surprising trend: use of combos – prediction market speak for parlays – rises on the weekends, indicating that traders are mostly using multi-leg wagers for sports purposes. DraftKings’ (NASDAQ: DKNG) DKeX is one of the beneficiaries of that trend.
“The weekend uplift is consistent with combos skewing toward NFL and college football activity. DKeX’s higher combo penetration across both weekdays and weekends suggests a structurally more sports- and combo-heavy product mix,” notes Fannon.
Some Non-Sports Growth, Too
Non-sports categories posted growth on prediction markets in October with those ADV increases likely attributable to traders’ affinity for political event contracts.
“From a product mix standpoint, sports ADV grew +55% m/m to $2,978M, while non-sports ADV also grew +55% m/m to $843M in October,” says Fannon. “Sports ADV continues to have a dominant mkt share at 78% in October (flat m/m). On the OI side, sports share of total OI grew to 83% in October (from 73% in September).”
Today is Election Day, so near-term non-sports growth for prediction markets likely hinges on cryptocurrency and financial derivatives, among other categories.
Source link
