Perhaps the biggest National Football League (NFL) betting storyline to emerge as the season approaches its halfway point is the Chicago Bears’ emergence as a legitimate Super Bowl threat, according to Las Vegas-based Johnny Avello, director of sports operations at DraftKings.
The Bears are coming off a convincing 34-17 win over the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks on Monday (Nov. 2) night and are now +750 to win the championship in futures at DraftKings, behind only the San Francisco 49ers (+550) and the Buffalo Bills (+600).
With the NFL trade deadline on Nov. 10, the Bears jumped the gun and completed a major trade on Oct. 29 with the Tennessee Titans, bringing in All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons in exchange for two first-round picks (2027 and 2028) and a fourth-round pick (2027).
Simmons Trade Impacts Bears’ Odds
As Avello said, the Bears, now 6-2, have surged from +3000 to where they are today. The trade came four days before the Bears’ Monday (Nov. 2) night win. Avello said the Bears’ odds went from +1400 to +1200 following the Simmons trade.
Besides the Bears, the NFL’s unpredictable first half has delivered plenty of surprises for sportsbooks, with underdogs winning outright and preseason contenders struggling, Avello added.
The biggest takeaway from the first eight weeks, he said, is the growing parity across the league, making it increasingly difficult to separate legitimate contenders from the rest of the field.
NFL Parity Challenges Sportsbooks
“There has been a lot of underdogs, big underdogs, win games outright,” Avello told Casino.org. “There’s just a lot of parity in the league now. You can tell by any given week somebody can bite somebody.”
Avello pointed to Cincinnati’s surprisingly competitive game against Tennessee last week – a 43-36 Bengals win in overtime – as an example of how unpredictable NFL results have become.
Perhaps the biggest betting development has been Chicago’s rapid rise in the Super Bowl futures market.
The Bears’ latest performance triggered another wave of betting interest.
National Following for Bears
“We took quite a bit of money on the Bears to win the Super Bowl over the past week or so, mostly over the last couple days because of their showing,” Avello said.
Chicago’s popularity with recreational bettors has amplified that interest. Avello noted that the Bears traditionally attract wagers because of their large national following, even during seasons when they are not playing as well.
As Caleb Williams develops into a leader under an offense-minded coach in Ben Johnson, Chicago has become a team bookmakers must take seriously, Avello said.
Chargers Collapse a Shock
Despite the surprising results, halfway through the season, Avello said sportsbooks are rarely caught completely off guard.
DraftKings continually evaluates team performances, adjusts power ratings and accounts for changing circumstances, including injuries and home-field advantages.
“I don’t think anything catches us off guard. They might for a week or so, but we catch up real fast because we’re constantly monitoring all teams and changing teams’ power ratings when needed,” he said.
Among the unexpected developments, Avello identified the Cleveland Browns’ five victories as an example of a team exceeding preseason expectations.
Giants Another Betting Surprise
Conversely, Avello described the L.A. Rams (4-4) as disappointing and the winless L.A. Chargers (0-7) as a disaster.
The New York Giants (4-2-1) have also surprised, overcoming significant injuries, including at quarterback, to lead the NFC East.
According to Avello, another notable distinction involves how recreational bettors and sophisticated players approach NFL wagering.
Recreational customers frequently gravitate toward popular favorites, using moneylines, point spreads, parlays and same-game parlays.
Professional Bettors Target Underdog Value
Professional bettors, meanwhile, are often more interested in identifying undervalued underdogs.
“Those guys are constantly looking for some value on the dog side,” he said.
Avello explained that professional bettors examine injuries, motivation, upcoming opponents and potential scheduling disadvantages before deciding whether an underdog offers value.
They particularly favor teams capable of winning outright while receiving points on the spread.
Looking toward the second half, Avello identified several teams whose performances deserve closer examination.
Broncos Overvalued
The Dallas Cowboys remain frustratingly inconsistent, repeatedly appearing ready to establish momentum before suffering another setback.
The Denver Broncos, despite their 6-2 record and challenging schedule, could also be somewhat overvalued.
The Chiefs, however, remain dangerous despite occasional setbacks, while the Raiders have exceeded expectations with veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins helping develop rookie Fernando Mendoza.
The Buffalo Bills represent another intriguing storyline.
Despite having Josh Allen, one of football’s premier quarterbacks, the Bills continue to struggle to produce defensive stops when games are on the line.
Bills’ Defensive Struggles Raise Concerns
Avello suggested those defensive shortcomings have prevented Buffalo from taking advantage of its championship opportunities.
“That team should have won at least a Super Bowl by now, if not two,” he said. “They’ve got arguably the best player in the league, and they just can’t stop anybody when they need to.”
For sportsbooks, the remaining schedule promises further surprises as contenders emerge, underdogs challenge expectations, and betting markets continue adjusting.
With no team clearly separating itself from the competition, Avello predicted another unpredictable stretch ahead for NFL bettors.
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