Since the pandemic, prices in Miami have moved in one direction: practically vertical.
Now, the threat of a bubble has wary buyers holding their breath. “Miami now shows the highest bubble risk among the cities in this study,” UBS’s 2024 Global Real Estate Bubble Index revealed. Miami beat out Tokyo and Zurich for the No. 1 spot. “Fueled by a booming luxury market, prices in Miami have risen by almost 50% in real terms since the end of 2019, 7% of which was in the last four quarters.”
But brokers say that smart money has no need for fear: Bubbleproof properties abound — if you know where to look. “Single-family waterfront properties are something that you cannot duplicate,” says Ana Teresa Rodriguez, founder and CEO of ATR Luxury Homes Group at Coldwell Banker Realty. “Whether it’s a canal, a bay or the ocean, if it’s on the water, it’s a win.”
As examples, she points at big ticket waterfront deals with Jeff Bezos at Indian Creek and David and Victoria Beckham’s recent purchase of an $80 million megamansion along the water on Miami Beach. “They know where to put their money,” she says.
For upside, or just weathering a financial storm, Rodriguez recommends buying in slightly off-the-radar areas like Bay Point, Miami Shores and the Old Cutler Bay section of Coral Gables. She’s especially bullish on Bay Point, where she’s listing Casa Exumas at 4241 Palm Lane for $20 million.
That six-bedroom, seven-bathroom, 6,334-square-foot home comes with 85 feet of waterfront and a private dock. “If I was investing my money right now, it would be in Bay Point,” she says.
South, in Old Cutler Bay, a waterfront estate at 9320 Gallardo St. with eight beds, nine baths and 8,360 square feet is asking $16.9 million with Lourdes Alatriste of Douglas Elliman. It comes with a covetable 100-foot dock offering direct ocean access.
Meanwhile, Elliman broker Ruthie Assouline is a bubble skeptic. “Sunny Isles and Brickell, where you have high density and a lot of inventory, maybe there you could see a bubble. But in areas with low inventory I just don’t see it.”
But to avoid any bubble trouble she recommends focusing on homes in areas where inventory is already tight and likely to tighten, e.g., Bal Harbour, prime Miami Beach and (the four) Sunset Islands. “In those areas more retail is coming, more hospitality is coming, more lifestyle is coming and you don’t have that many homes,” she says.
On Sunset Island III, 1510 W. 23rd St. is on the market with Julian Johnston of Corcoran Group for $35 million. A stroll away from the restaurants and retail of the Sunset Harbor shops, the five-bed, six-bath, 6,290-square-footer comes with 90 feet of waterfront and a private dock — all the ingredients to make sure you’re still floating if the bubble pops.
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