Polymarket Investment a Win for ICE, Says Moody’s

Posted on: October 13, 2025, 12:29h.
Last updated on: October 13, 2025, 12:29h.
- ICE’s $2 billion investment in Polymarket meshes with long-term goals
- Moody’s believes the deal will enhance ICE’s revenue stream
Last week, Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) invested $2 billion in prediction market operator Polymarket at a pre-money valuation of $8 billion — a stake that pushes the derivatives exchange’s post-investment valuation to $9 billion to $10 billion. Moody’s Investors Service views the move as a win for the financial services company.

Under the terms of the deal, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) will distribute Polymarket data on a global basis and the two entities will work together on future tokenization initiatives, potentially deepening ICE’s exposure to the fast-growing world of decentralized finance (DeFi). Moody’s says the investment jibes with the exchange operator’s goal of broadening its analytics and data business while boosting its digital currency footprint.
Although the deal carries valuation and regulatory risks, the potential for recurring revenue growth, product innovation and competitive positioning in emerging markets is credit-positive, provided ICE’s leverage remains within its targeted levels and regulatory risks are managed,” notes Moody’s.
The ratings agency said a portion of the $2 billion investment in Polymarket may need to be funded with debt because ICE had $1 billion in cash on hand at the end of the second quarter, but if that proves accurate, it’d likely result in just a small increase to ICE’s leverage.
Polymarket Relationship Could Lift ICE Revenue
With prediction markets gaining traction and representing a credible threat to the US sports wagering industry, ICE’s investment in Polymarket could prove prescient because many of the professional market participants ICE already serves on other platforms are embracing event contracts.
The deal could also be a boon to the investor because it diversifies its revenue, potentially reducing dependence on traditional trading sources, which can be volatile, particularly when conditions aren’t to the liking of market participants.
“ICE’s distribution rights to Polymarket’s data will likely enhance its recurring revenue base, which is less sensitive to cyclical trading volumes,” adds Moody’s. “Polymarket’s data—derived from real-time event probabilities—will likely lead to the development of additional products on ICE’s platform, such as indexes, sentiment indicators and other analytics products, expanding ICE’s product suite.”
The relationship with Polymarket also strengthens ICE’s exposure to the cyrptocurrency space – an area in which it’s had previous success. The exchange operator was an earlier investor in Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN), turning a $10 million investment into a $1.2 billion gain. ICE also holds a minority interest in digital asset marketplace Bakkt.
Competition May Have Necessitated ICE Move
ICE may have been compelled to join the prediction markets party because some of its rivals are already doing the same. For example, Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) partners with Kalshi — Polymarket’s nearest competitor — while CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) and FanDuel announced an event contract partnership in August.
“ICE joins a growing list of traditional financial firms entering prediction markets. CME Group Inc. has partnered with FanDuel to offer regulated event contracts, while Robinhood launched its own prediction markets platform,” concludes Moody’s.
Source link