Here’s Who Leads In The Key 2024 Election Battlegrounds

Pennsylvania: Harris holds a four-point advantage, 50% to 47% (but closer to four points when not rounded up) in a Saturday pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls and also has the same lead in an Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll, though Friday’s Wall Street Journal Poll gives Trump a one-point advantage, 46% to 45%, and the Thursday Emerson poll also found him up one point, 49% to 48%. Trump leads Harris by 0.7 points in Five Thirty Eight’s polling average.

Arizona: Trump leads Harris, 51% to 46%, in the Times’ poll, a margin nearly unchanged from last month, and also leads by two points, 49% to 47%, in the Thursday Emerson poll, while Harris leads Trump, 47% to 45%, in the latest Wall Street Journal Poll. Trump is up 1.6 points in Five Thirty Eight’s polling average.

Michigan: Harris leads Trump 47% to 45% in the Wall Street Journal poll, a change from the Emerson poll that shows Trump tied with Harris and from Trump’s three-point lead (50% to 47%) in the Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll—though Harris is still up 0.8 in Michigan in Five Thirty Eight’s polling average.

Wisconsin: Harris holds a 1-point lead in Friday’s Journal poll, while Trump leads Harris by two points, 48% to 46%, in the Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll, and the two are tied at 49% in the Emerson poll. Harris is up 0.7 points in Five Thirty Eight’s average.

Nevada: The Journal poll has Trump up by 5 points. Harris is up one point, 48% to 47%, in the Emerson survey. Harris leads by 0.8 points in Five Thirty Eight’s polling average.